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    Temporal Changes in Wind as Objects for Evaluating Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2009:;volume( 024 ):;issue: 005::page 1374
    Author:
    Rife, Daran L.
    ,
    Davis, Christopher A.
    ,
    Knievel, Jason C.
    DOI: 10.1175/2009WAF2222223.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The study describes a method of evaluating numerical weather prediction models by comparing the characteristics of temporal changes in simulated and observed 10-m (AGL) winds. The method is demonstrated on a 1-yr collection of 1-day simulations by the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) over southern New Mexico. Temporal objects, or wind events, are defined at the observation locations and at each grid point in the model domain as vector wind changes over 2 h. Changes above the uppermost quartile of the distributions in the observations and simulations are empirically classified as significant; their attributes are analyzed and interpreted. It is demonstrated that the model can discriminate between large and modest wind changes on a pointwise basis, suggesting that many forecast events have an observational counterpart. Spatial clusters of significant wind events are highly continuous in space and time. Such continuity suggests that displaying maps of surface wind changes with high temporal resolution can alert forecasters to the occurrence of important phenomena. Documented systematic errors in the amplitude, direction, and timing of wind events will allow forecasters to mentally adjust for biases in features forecast by the model.
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      Temporal Changes in Wind as Objects for Evaluating Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4211425
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    • Weather and Forecasting

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    contributor authorRife, Daran L.
    contributor authorDavis, Christopher A.
    contributor authorKnievel, Jason C.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:32:43Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:32:43Z
    date copyright2009/10/01
    date issued2009
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-69724.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4211425
    description abstractThe study describes a method of evaluating numerical weather prediction models by comparing the characteristics of temporal changes in simulated and observed 10-m (AGL) winds. The method is demonstrated on a 1-yr collection of 1-day simulations by the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) over southern New Mexico. Temporal objects, or wind events, are defined at the observation locations and at each grid point in the model domain as vector wind changes over 2 h. Changes above the uppermost quartile of the distributions in the observations and simulations are empirically classified as significant; their attributes are analyzed and interpreted. It is demonstrated that the model can discriminate between large and modest wind changes on a pointwise basis, suggesting that many forecast events have an observational counterpart. Spatial clusters of significant wind events are highly continuous in space and time. Such continuity suggests that displaying maps of surface wind changes with high temporal resolution can alert forecasters to the occurrence of important phenomena. Documented systematic errors in the amplitude, direction, and timing of wind events will allow forecasters to mentally adjust for biases in features forecast by the model.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleTemporal Changes in Wind as Objects for Evaluating Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume24
    journal issue5
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/2009WAF2222223.1
    journal fristpage1374
    journal lastpage1389
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2009:;volume( 024 ):;issue: 005
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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