Origin and Paths of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Related to Certain Physical Parameters at the Air-Sea Interface

Abstract

Ship weather and sea-temperature observations were used to obtain averaged values of sea and air temperature, dewpoint, windspeed and the transfer of real and latent heat from the sea-surface for a large number of 10-day and 5-day periods from the hurricane seasons of several years; and for an area comprising the Atlantic south of 35H, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. These parameters were studied with regard to the possibility of forecasting hurricane and tropical storm genesis and paths for several days in advance. Although none of the parameters provided a definite indication in each case of storm formation and track, the energy-transfer parameter showed some skill when averaged for several storms, in the sense that storms appear to form downstream from geographical centers of maximum heat transfer. The sea-temperature anomaly (studied for only part of the above data) seems especially consistent in indicating the subsequent track of the storms, which tend to be along axes of maximum positive anomaly.