Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting

Abstract

Because poor visibility conditions have a considerable influence on airport traffic, a need exists for accurate and updated fog and low-cloud forecasts. Couche Brouillard Eau Liquide (COBEL)-Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA), a boundary layer 1D numerical model, has been developed for the very short-term forecast of fog and low clouds. This forecast system assimilates local observations to produce initial profiles of temperature and specific humidity. The initial conditions have a great impact on the skill of the forecast. In this work, the authors first estimated the background error statistics; they varied greatly with time, and cross correlations between temperature and humidity in the background were significant. This led to the implementation of an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) within COBEL-ISBA. The new assimilation system was evaluated with temperature and specific humidity scores, as well as in terms of its impact on the quality of fog forecasts. Simulated observations were used and focused on the modeling of the atmosphere before fog formation and also on the simulation of the life cycle of fog and low clouds. For both situations, the EnKF brought a significant improvement in the initial conditions and the forecasts. The forecast of the onset and burn-off times of fogs was also improved. The EnKF was also tested with real observations and gave good results. The size of the ensemble did not have much impact when simulated observations were used, thanks to an adaptive covariance inflation algorithm, but the impact was greater when real observations were used.