Improving Global Model Precipitation Forecasts over India Using Downscaling and the FSU Superensemble. Part I: 1–5-Day Forecasts

Abstract

The availability of daily observed rainfall estimates at a resolution of 0.5° ? 0.5° latitude?longitude from a collection of over 2100 rain gauge sites over India provided the possibility for carrying out 5-day precipitation forecasts using a downscaling and a multimodel superensemble methodology. This paper addresses the forecast performances and regional distribution of predicted monsoon rains from the downscaling and from the addition of a multimodel superensemble. The extent of rainfall prediction improvements that arise above those of a current suite of operational models are discussed. The design of two algorithms one for downscaling and the other for the construction of multimodel superensembles are both based on the principle of least squares minimization of errors. That combination is shown to provide a robust forecast product through day 5 of the forecast for regional rains over the Indian monsoon region. The equitable threat scores from the downscaled superensemble over India well exceed those noted from the conventional superensemble and member models at current operational large-scale resolution.