A Last Saturation Analysis of ENSO Humidity Variability in the Subtropical Pacific

Abstract

Water vapor tracers of last saturation were used in an atmospheric tracer transport model to evaluate ENSO variability in the generation of the dry air that defines the subtropical middle troposphere over the North Pacific. Fifteen Northern Hemisphere winters, including El Niño, La Niña, and ENSO-neutral seasons, were evaluated using both Northern Hemisphere and global last saturation water vapor tracer configurations. During El Niño northern winter, the free troposphere over the subtropical North Pacific is both drier and warmer than during La Niña. The probability distributions of the last saturation position for the dry air in the middle troposphere were evaluated over the subtropical North Pacific and were found to be further poleward, at a higher altitude, and more westerly in their components during the warm phase compared to the cold phase. During warm phase (cold phase) northern winter, 57% (49%) of the air at 20°N and 633 hPa over the North Pacific was last saturated poleward of 20°N and above 500 hPa. Coherency was demonstrated between tropical sea surface temperatures, extratropical atmospheric saturation, and subtropical aridity of the middle troposphere. The stronger westerly component of last saturation during the warm phase ties ENSO-variable subtropical aridity to midlatitude westerlies when there is enhanced baroclinicity and an equatorward migration of the Pacific storm track. Humidity reconstructions from the water vapor tracers capture observed ENSO humidity variability and demonstrate that it can be explained in terms of changes in the location of last saturation, and not by changes in the temperature field. This study shows how teleconnections between the tropical ocean and the extratropical upper troposphere can impact the humidity of the middle troposphere of the subtropical dry regions.