Global and Regional Climate Response to Late Twentieth-Century Warming over the Indian Ocean

Abstract

The global and regional climate response to a warming of the Indian Ocean is examined in an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model experiments. The most marked changes occur over the Indian Ocean, where the increase in tropical SST is found to drive enhanced convection throughout the troposphere. In the extratropics, the warming Indian Ocean is found to induce a significant trend toward the positive phase of the northern annular mode and also to enhance the Southern Hemisphere storm track over Indian Ocean longitudes as a result of stronger meridional temperature gradients. Convective outflow in the upper levels over the warming Indian Ocean leads to a trend in subsidence over the Indian and Asian monsoon regions extending southeastward to Indonesia, the eastern Pacific, and northern Australia. Regional changes in Australia reveal that this anomalous zone of subsidence induces a drying trend in the northern regions of the continent. The long-term rainfall trend is exacerbated over northeastern Australia by the anomalous anticyclonic circulation, which leads to an offshore trend in near-surface winds. The confluence of these two factors leads to a drying signal over northeastern Australia, which is detectable during austral autumn. The rapid, late twentieth-century warming of the Indian Ocean may have contributed to a component of the observed drying trend over northeastern Australia in this season via modifications to the vertical structure of the tropical wind field.