Cold Events over Southern Australia: Synoptic Climatology and Hemispheric Structure

Abstract

Cold events (CEs) are an important feature of southern Australian weather. Unseasonably cold conditions can have a significant impact on Australia?s agricultural industry and other aspects of society. In this study the bottom 0.4% of maximum temperatures in Melbourne and Perth from the 1958?2006 period are defined as CEs, representing the large-scale patterns affecting most of extratropical Australia. Compiling 6-hourly progressions of the tracks of the cyclones and anticyclones that are geostrophically associated with CEs gives for the first time a detailed synoptic climatology over the area. The anticyclone tracks display a ?cloud? of high density across the Indian Ocean, which is linked, in the mean, to weak but significant negative SST anomalies in the region. The cyclone tracks display much variability, with system origins ranging from subpolar to tropical. Several CEs are found to involve tropical and extratropical interaction or extratropical transition of originally tropical cyclones (hurricanes). CE-associated systems travel farther and exhibit longer life spans than similar, non-CE systems. Upper-level analyses indicate the presence of a wave train originating more than 120° west of the CE. This pattern greatly intensifies over the affected area in conjunction with a merging of the subpolar and subtropical jets. The upper-level wave train is present up to five days before the CE. The absence of large orographic features in Australia highlights the importance of wave amplification in CE occurrence. No consistent trend in CE intensity over the period is found, but a significant negative trend in event frequency is identified for both Melbourne and Perth.