Increasing Trend of Synoptic Activity and Its Relationship with Extreme Rain Events over Central India

Abstract

The nature of the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events (ERE) in central India is investigated by relating their occurrence to synoptic activity. Using a long record of the paths and intensities of monsoon synoptic disturbances, a synoptic activity index (SAI) is defined whose interannual variation correlates strongly with that in the number of ERE, demonstrating a strong connection between these phenomena. SAI furthermore shows a rising trend that is statistically indistinguishable from that in ERE, indicating that the increasing frequency of ERE is likely attributable to a rising trend in synoptic activity. This synoptic activity increase results from a rising trend in relatively weak low pressure systems (LPS), and it outweighs a declining trend in stronger LPS.