Understanding the Characteristics of Daily Precipitation over the United States Using the North American Regional Reanalysis

Abstract

This study examines the seasonal characteristics of daily precipitation over the United States using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). To help understand the physical mechanisms that contribute to changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation, vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (MFC) and precipitable water were included in the study. First, an analysis of the NARR precipitation was carried out because while observed precipitation is indirectly assimilated in the system, differences exist. The NARR mean seasonal amount is very close to that of observations throughout the year, although NARR exhibits a slight systematic bias toward more-frequent, lighter precipitation. Particularly during summer, the precipitation intensity and the probability distribution function (PDF) indicate that NARR somewhat underestimates extremes and overestimates lighter events in the eastern half of the United States. The intensity and PDF of moisture flux convergence exhibit a strong similarity to those of precipitation, suggesting a link between strong MFC and precipitation extremes. On the other hand, the relationship between the precipitable water and precipitation PDFs is weaker, based on the lack of agreement of their gamma distribution parameters. The dependence of the precipitation PDF on the lower-frequency modulation of ENSO was examined. During El Niño winters, the Southwest and central United States, Gulf of Mexico region, and southeastern coast have greater precipitation intensity and extremes than during La Niña, and the Ohio River and Red River basins have lower intensity and fewer extreme events. During summer, the northern Rocky Mountains receive higher intensity precipitation with more extreme events. Most areas where the change in the daily mean precipitation between ENSO phases is large have greater shifts in the extreme tail of the PDF. The ENSO-related response of moisture flux convergence is similar to that of precipitation. ENSO-related shifts in the precipitation PDF do not appear to have a strong relationship to the shifts in precipitable water.