The Hadley and Walker Circulation Changes in Global Warming Conditions Described by Idealized Atmospheric Simulations

Abstract

Sea surface temperature (SST) changes constitute a major indicator and driver of climate changes induced by greenhouse gas increases. The objective of the present study is to investigate the role played by the detailed structure of the SST change on the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the distribution of precipitation. For that purpose, simulations from the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 4 (IPSL-CM4) are used where the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is doubled. The response of IPSL-CM4 is characterized by the same robust mechanisms affecting the other coupled models in global warming simulations, that is, an increase of the hydrological cycle accompanied by a global weakening of the large-scale circulation. First, purely atmospheric simulations are performed to mimic the results of the coupled model. Then, specific simulations are set up to further study the underlying atmospheric mechanisms. These simulations use different prescribed SST anomalies, which correspond to a linear decomposition of the IPSL-CM4 SST changes in global, longitudinal, and latitudinal components. The simulation using a globally uniform increase of the SST is able to reproduce the modifications in the intensity of the hydrological cycle or in the mean upward mass flux, which also characterize the double CO2 simulation with the coupled model. But it is necessary (and largely sufficient) to also take into account the zonal-mean meridional structure of the SST changes to represent correctly the changes in the Hadley circulation strength or the zonal-mean precipitation changes simulated by the coupled model, even if these meridional changes by themselves do not change the mean thermodynamical state of the tropical atmosphere. The longitudinal SST anomalies of IPSL-CM4 also have an impact on the precipitation and large-scale tropical circulation and tend to introduce different changes over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The longitudinal SST changes are demonstrated to have a smaller but opposite effect from that of the meridional anomalies on the Hadley cell circulations. Results indicate that the uncertainties in the simulated meridional patterns of the SST warming may have major consequences on the assessment of the changes of the Hadley circulation and zonal-mean precipitation in future climate projections.