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    Attribution of Projected Changes in Atmospheric Moisture Transport in the Arctic: A Self-Organizing Map Perspective

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2009:;volume( 022 ):;issue: 015::page 4135
    Author:
    Skific, Natasa
    ,
    Francis, Jennifer A.
    ,
    Cassano, John J.
    DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2645.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Meridonal moisture transport into the Arctic derived from one simulation of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM3), spanning the periods of 1960?99, 2010?30, and 2070?89, is analyzed. The twenty-first-century simulation incorporates the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 scenario for CO2 and sulfate emissions. Modeled and observed [from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40)] sea level pressure (SLP) fields are classified using a neural network technique called self-organizing maps to distill a set of characteristic atmospheric circulation patterns over the region north of 60°N. Model performance is validated for the twentieth century by comparing the frequencies of occurrence of particular circulation regimes in the model to those from the ERA-40. The model successfully captures dominant SLP patterns, but differs from observations in the frequency with which certain patterns occur. The model?s twentieth-century vertical mean moisture transport profile across 70°N compares well in terms of structure but exceeds the observations by about 12% overall. By relating moisture transport to a particular circulation regime, future changes in moisture transport across 70°N are assessed and attributed to changes in frequency with which the atmosphere resides in particular SLP patterns and/or to other factors, such as changes in the meridional moisture gradient. By the late twenty-first century, the transport is projected to increase by about 21% in this model realization, with the largest contribution (32%) to the total change occurring in summer. Only about one-quarter of the annual increase is due to changes in pattern occupancy, suggesting that the majority is related to mainly thermodynamic factors. A larger poleward moisture transport likely constitutes a positive feedback on the system through related increases in latent heat release and the emission of longwave radiation to the surface.
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      Attribution of Projected Changes in Atmospheric Moisture Transport in the Arctic: A Self-Organizing Map Perspective

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4210248
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    • Journal of Climate

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    contributor authorSkific, Natasa
    contributor authorFrancis, Jennifer A.
    contributor authorCassano, John J.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:28:56Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:28:56Z
    date copyright2009/08/01
    date issued2009
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-68665.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4210248
    description abstractMeridonal moisture transport into the Arctic derived from one simulation of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM3), spanning the periods of 1960?99, 2010?30, and 2070?89, is analyzed. The twenty-first-century simulation incorporates the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 scenario for CO2 and sulfate emissions. Modeled and observed [from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40)] sea level pressure (SLP) fields are classified using a neural network technique called self-organizing maps to distill a set of characteristic atmospheric circulation patterns over the region north of 60°N. Model performance is validated for the twentieth century by comparing the frequencies of occurrence of particular circulation regimes in the model to those from the ERA-40. The model successfully captures dominant SLP patterns, but differs from observations in the frequency with which certain patterns occur. The model?s twentieth-century vertical mean moisture transport profile across 70°N compares well in terms of structure but exceeds the observations by about 12% overall. By relating moisture transport to a particular circulation regime, future changes in moisture transport across 70°N are assessed and attributed to changes in frequency with which the atmosphere resides in particular SLP patterns and/or to other factors, such as changes in the meridional moisture gradient. By the late twenty-first century, the transport is projected to increase by about 21% in this model realization, with the largest contribution (32%) to the total change occurring in summer. Only about one-quarter of the annual increase is due to changes in pattern occupancy, suggesting that the majority is related to mainly thermodynamic factors. A larger poleward moisture transport likely constitutes a positive feedback on the system through related increases in latent heat release and the emission of longwave radiation to the surface.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleAttribution of Projected Changes in Atmospheric Moisture Transport in the Arctic: A Self-Organizing Map Perspective
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume22
    journal issue15
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/2009JCLI2645.1
    journal fristpage4135
    journal lastpage4153
    treeJournal of Climate:;2009:;volume( 022 ):;issue: 015
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian