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    Implications of Both Statistical Equilibrium and Global Warming Simulations with CCSM3. Part I: On the Decadal Variability in the North Pacific Basin

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2009:;volume( 022 ):;issue: 020::page 5277
    Author:
    d’Orgeville, Marc
    ,
    Peltier, W. Richard
    DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2428.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: In the low-resolution version of the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), the modeled North Pacific decadal variability is demonstrated to be independent of the epoch for which a statistically steady control simulation is constructed, either preindustrial or modern; however, it is demonstrated to be significantly affected by the different global warming scenarios investigated. In the control simulations, the North Pacific basin is shown to be dominated by sea surface temperature (SST) variability with a time scale of approximately 20 yr. This mode of variability is in close accord with the observed characteristics of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). A detailed analysis of the statistical equilibrium runs is performed based on other model variables as well [sea surface salinity (SSS), barotropic circulation, freshwater and heat fluxes, wind stress curl, sea ice, and snow coverage]. These analyses confirm that the underlying mechanism of the PDO involves a basin-scale mode of ocean adjustment to changes of the atmospheric forcing associated with the Aleutian low pressure system. However, they also suggest that the observed sign reversal of the PDO arises from a feedback in the northern part of the basin. In this novel hypothesis, the advection to the Bering Sea of ?spice? anomalies formed in the central and western Pacific sets up a typical 10-yr time scale for the triggering of the PDO reversal. In all of the global warming simulations described in this paper, the signal represented by the detrended SST variability in the North Pacific displays significant power at multidecadal frequencies. In these simulations, the natural North Pacific decadal variability, as characterized in the control simulations (the PDO), remains the leading mode of variability only for moderate forcing. If the warming is too strong, then the typical 20-yr time scale of the canonical PDO can no longer be detected, except in terms of SSS variability and only prior to a significant change that occurs in the Bering Strait Throughflow.
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      Implications of Both Statistical Equilibrium and Global Warming Simulations with CCSM3. Part I: On the Decadal Variability in the North Pacific Basin

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4210206
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    contributor authord’Orgeville, Marc
    contributor authorPeltier, W. Richard
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:28:48Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:28:48Z
    date copyright2009/10/01
    date issued2009
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-68627.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4210206
    description abstractIn the low-resolution version of the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), the modeled North Pacific decadal variability is demonstrated to be independent of the epoch for which a statistically steady control simulation is constructed, either preindustrial or modern; however, it is demonstrated to be significantly affected by the different global warming scenarios investigated. In the control simulations, the North Pacific basin is shown to be dominated by sea surface temperature (SST) variability with a time scale of approximately 20 yr. This mode of variability is in close accord with the observed characteristics of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). A detailed analysis of the statistical equilibrium runs is performed based on other model variables as well [sea surface salinity (SSS), barotropic circulation, freshwater and heat fluxes, wind stress curl, sea ice, and snow coverage]. These analyses confirm that the underlying mechanism of the PDO involves a basin-scale mode of ocean adjustment to changes of the atmospheric forcing associated with the Aleutian low pressure system. However, they also suggest that the observed sign reversal of the PDO arises from a feedback in the northern part of the basin. In this novel hypothesis, the advection to the Bering Sea of ?spice? anomalies formed in the central and western Pacific sets up a typical 10-yr time scale for the triggering of the PDO reversal. In all of the global warming simulations described in this paper, the signal represented by the detrended SST variability in the North Pacific displays significant power at multidecadal frequencies. In these simulations, the natural North Pacific decadal variability, as characterized in the control simulations (the PDO), remains the leading mode of variability only for moderate forcing. If the warming is too strong, then the typical 20-yr time scale of the canonical PDO can no longer be detected, except in terms of SSS variability and only prior to a significant change that occurs in the Bering Strait Throughflow.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleImplications of Both Statistical Equilibrium and Global Warming Simulations with CCSM3. Part I: On the Decadal Variability in the North Pacific Basin
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume22
    journal issue20
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/2009JCLI2428.1
    journal fristpage5277
    journal lastpage5297
    treeJournal of Climate:;2009:;volume( 022 ):;issue: 020
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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