Spectra, Spatial Scales, and Predictability in a Quasigeostrophic Model

Abstract

Results from homogeneous, isotropic turbulence suggest that predictability behavior is linked to the slope of a flow?s kinetic energy spectrum. Such a link has potential implications for the predictability behavior of atmospheric models. This article investigates these topics in an intermediate context: a multilevel quasigeostrophic model with a jet and temperature perturbations at the upper surface (a surrogate tropopause). Spectra and perturbation growth behavior are examined at three model resolutions. The results augment previous studies of spectra and predictability in quasigeostrophic models, and they provide insight that can help interpret results from more complex models. At the highest resolution tested, the slope of the kinetic energy spectrum is approximately at the upper surface but ?3 or steeper at all but the uppermost interior model levels. Consistent with this, the model?s predictability behavior exhibits key features expected for flow with a shallower than ?3 slope. At the highest resolution, upper-surface perturbation spectra peak below the energy-containing scales, and the error growth rate decreases as small scales saturate. In addition, as model resolution is increased and smaller scales are resolved, the peak of the upper-surface perturbation spectra shifts to smaller scales and the error growth rate increases. The implications for potential predictive improvements are not as severe, however, as in the standard picture of flows exhibiting a finite predictability limit. At the highest resolution, the model also exhibits periods of much faster-than-average perturbation growth that are associated with faster growth at smaller scales, suggesting predictability behavior that varies with time.