Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Data on the Numerical Simulation of a Historical Mumbai Rain Event

Abstract

In this paper, the three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme (3DVAR) in the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research (Penn State?NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to study the impact of assimilating Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrieved temperature and moisture profiles on board Aqua, a satellite that is part of NASA?s Earth Observing System. A record-breaking heavy rain event that occurred over Mumbai, India, on 26 July 2005 with 24-h rainfall exceeding 94 cm was used for the simulation. By analyzing the data from the NCEP?NCAR reanalysis, possible causes of this heavy rainfall event were investigated. The temporal evolution of meteorological fields clearly indicates the formation of midtropospheric mesoscale vortices over Mumbai that exactly coincides with the duration of the intense rainfall. Analysis also indicated the midlevel dryness with higher temperature and moisture in the lower levels. This midlevel dryness with high temperature and moisture in the lower levels increases the conditional instability, which was conducive for the development of very severe local thunderstorms. The midtropospheric mesoscale vortices existed over Mumbai together with lower-level instability and the active monsoon conditions over the west coast resulted in intense rainfall, on the order of 94 cm in 24 h. Numerical experiments were conducted, with two nested domains (45- and 15-km grid spacing). The assimilation of the AIRS-retrieved temperature and moisture profiles produced significant impacts on the location and intensity of the simulated rainfall. It is seen from the numerical experiments that the assimilation of AIRS data could produce the structure of mesoscale vortices, and lower-level thermodynamics and convergence much more realistically compared with the control simulation. The spatial distribution of the rainfall from the simulation using AIRS data was more realistic than that without AIRS data. To make the quantitative comparison of the predicted rainfall with the observed one, the equitable threat score and bias were calculated for different threshold values of rainfall. Inclusion of AIRS data significantly improved the precipitation as indicated by the equitable threat scores and biases for almost all of the threshold rainfall categories.