Recurving Tropical Cyclones: Singular Vector Sensitivity and Downstream Impacts

Abstract

Singular vectors (SVs) are used to study the sensitivity of 2-day forecasts of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific to changes in the initial state. The SVs are calculated using the tangent and adjoint models of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) for 72 forecasts for 18 TCs in the western North Pacific during 2006. In addition to the linear SV calculation, nonlinear perturbation experiments are also performed in order to examine 1) the similarity between nonlinear and linear perturbation growth and 2) the downstream impacts over the North Pacific and North America that result from changes to the 2-day TC forecast. Both nonrecurving and recurving 2-day storm forecasts are sensitive to changes in the initial state in the near-storm environment (in an annulus approximately 500 km from the storm center). During recurvature, sensitivity develops to the northwest of the storm, usually associated with a trough moving in from the west. These upstream sensitivities can occur as far as 4000 km to the northwest of the storm, over the Asian mainland, which has implications for adaptive observations. Nonlinear perturbation experiments indicate that the linear calculations reflect case-to-case variability in actual nonlinear perturbation growth fairly well, especially when the growth is large. The nonlinear perturbations show that for recurving tropical cyclones, small initial perturbations optimized to change the 2-day TC forecast can grow and propagate downstream quickly, reaching North America in 5 days. The fastest 5-day perturbation growth is associated with recurving storm forecasts that occur when the baroclinic instability over the North Pacific is relatively large. These results suggest that nonlinear forecasts perturbed using TC SVs may have utility for predicting the downstream impact of TC forecast errors over the North Pacific and North America.