A Method for Identifying the Sensitive Areas in Targeted Observations for Tropical Cyclone Prediction: Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation

Abstract

Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which is a natural extension of the linear singular vector into the nonlinear regime, is proposed in this study for the determination of sensitive areas in adaptive observations for tropical cyclone prediction. Three tropical cyclone cases, Mindulle (2004), Meari (2004), and Matsa (2005), are investigated. Using the metrics of kinetic and dry energies, CNOPs and the first singular vectors (FSVs) are obtained over a 24-h optimization interval. Their spatial structures, their energies, and their nonlinear evolutions as well as the induced humidity changes are compared. A series of sensitivity experiments are designed to find out what benefit can be obtained by reductions of CNOP-type errors versus FSV-type errors. It is found that the structures of CNOPs may differ much from those of FSVs depending on the constraint, metric, and the basic state. The CNOP-type errors have larger impact on the forecasts in the verification area as well as the tropical cyclones than the FSV-types errors. The results of sensitivity experiments indicate that reductions of CNOP-type errors in the initial states provide more benefits than reductions of FSV-type errors. These results suggest that it is worthwhile to use CNOP as a method to identify the sensitive areas in adaptive observation for tropical cyclone prediction.