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    Four Years of Tropical ERA-40 Vorticity Maxima Tracks. Part II: Differences between Developing and Nondeveloping Disturbances

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2009:;volume( 137 ):;issue: 008::page 2576
    Author:
    Kerns, Brandon
    ,
    Zipser, Edward
    DOI: 10.1175/2008MWR2545.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Using a subset of the relative vorticity maxima (VM) tracks described in Part I, large-scale environmental fields, cold cloud area, and rainfall area are used to discriminate between developing and nondeveloping tropical disturbances in the eastern North Pacific (EPAC) and Atlantic Oceans. By using a minimum cold cloud coverage requirement, the nondeveloping VM are limited to disturbances with enhanced low-level relative vorticity and widespread deep convection. Linear discriminant analysis is used to determine the overall discrimination and the relative importance of each predictor for each basin separately. It is important to distinguish the two basins because, for many predictors, the differences between the basins are greater than the differences between developing and nondeveloping VM in each basin. Using the parametric forecast method, there is greater discrimination and prediction skill in the EPAC than in the Atlantic. There are also significant differences between the two basins in terms of the degree of discrimination provided by each of the predictors. Surprisingly, the mean vertical wind shear magnitude is greater for EPAC developing VM than for EPAC nondeveloping VM. Incorporating the satellite-derived predictors marginally improves the potential forecast skill in the EPAC but not in the Atlantic. The prediction skill (Heidke skill score) of tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic is similar to what has been obtained in previous studies using cloud cluster tracks. There is greater predictive skill in the EPAC.
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      Four Years of Tropical ERA-40 Vorticity Maxima Tracks. Part II: Differences between Developing and Nondeveloping Disturbances

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    contributor authorKerns, Brandon
    contributor authorZipser, Edward
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:26:27Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:26:27Z
    date copyright2009/08/01
    date issued2009
    identifier issn0027-0644
    identifier otherams-67917.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4209417
    description abstractUsing a subset of the relative vorticity maxima (VM) tracks described in Part I, large-scale environmental fields, cold cloud area, and rainfall area are used to discriminate between developing and nondeveloping tropical disturbances in the eastern North Pacific (EPAC) and Atlantic Oceans. By using a minimum cold cloud coverage requirement, the nondeveloping VM are limited to disturbances with enhanced low-level relative vorticity and widespread deep convection. Linear discriminant analysis is used to determine the overall discrimination and the relative importance of each predictor for each basin separately. It is important to distinguish the two basins because, for many predictors, the differences between the basins are greater than the differences between developing and nondeveloping VM in each basin. Using the parametric forecast method, there is greater discrimination and prediction skill in the EPAC than in the Atlantic. There are also significant differences between the two basins in terms of the degree of discrimination provided by each of the predictors. Surprisingly, the mean vertical wind shear magnitude is greater for EPAC developing VM than for EPAC nondeveloping VM. Incorporating the satellite-derived predictors marginally improves the potential forecast skill in the EPAC but not in the Atlantic. The prediction skill (Heidke skill score) of tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic is similar to what has been obtained in previous studies using cloud cluster tracks. There is greater predictive skill in the EPAC.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleFour Years of Tropical ERA-40 Vorticity Maxima Tracks. Part II: Differences between Developing and Nondeveloping Disturbances
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume137
    journal issue8
    journal titleMonthly Weather Review
    identifier doi10.1175/2008MWR2545.1
    journal fristpage2576
    journal lastpage2591
    treeMonthly Weather Review:;2009:;volume( 137 ):;issue: 008
    contenttypeFulltext
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