A Revised Hurricane Pressure–Wind Model

Abstract

A new technique for relating central pressure and maximum winds in tropical cyclones is presented, together with a method of objectively determining a derivative of the Holland b parameter, bs, which relates directly to surface winds and varies with the pressure drop into the cyclone center, intensification rate, latitude, and translation speed. By allowing this bs parameter to vary, a realistic scatter in maximum winds for a given central pressure is obtained. This provides an improvement over traditional approaches that provide a unique wind for each central pressure. It is further recommended that application of the Dvorak satellite-interpretation technique be changed to enable a direct derivation of central pressure. The pressure?wind model derived here can then provide the maximum wind estimates. The recent North Atlantic data archive is shown to be largely derived from the use of the Dvorak technique, even when hurricane reconnaissance data are available and Dvorak overestimates maximum winds in this region for the more intense hurricanes. Application to the full North Atlantic hurricane archive confirms the findings by Landsea (1993) of a substantial overestimation of maximum winds between 1950 and 1980; the Landsea corrections do not completely remove this bias.