Changes in Water Vapor Transport and the Production of Precipitation in the Eastern Fertile Crescent as a Result of Global Warming

Abstract

This study investigates changes in the types of storm events occurring in the Fertile Crescent as a result of global warming. Regional climate model [fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5)?Noah] simulations are run for the first and last five years of the twenty-first century following the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 experiment. Then the precipitation events are classified according to the water vapor fluxes that created them. At present most of the region?s precipitation is from westerly water vapor fluxes. Results indicate that the region will increasingly get its precipitation from large events that are dominated by southerly water vapor fluxes. The increase in these events will occur in the transition seasons, especially autumn.