Impact of Subsurface Temperature Variability on Surface Air Temperature Variability: An AGCM Study

Abstract

Anomalous atmospheric conditions can lead to surface temperature anomalies, which in turn can lead to temperature anomalies in the subsurface soil. The subsurface soil temperature (and the associated ground heat content) has significant memory?the dissipation of a temperature anomaly may take weeks to months?and thus subsurface soil temperature may contribute to the low-frequency variability of energy and water variables elsewhere in the system. The memory may even provide some skill to subseasonal and seasonal forecasts. This study uses three long-term AGCM experiments to isolate the contribution of subsurface soil temperature variability to variability elsewhere in the climate system. The first experiment consists of a standard ensemble of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations in which the subsurface soil temperature variable is allowed to interact with the rest of the system. In the second experiment, the coupling of the subsurface soil temperature to the rest of the climate system is disabled; that is, at each grid cell, the local climatological seasonal cycle of subsurface soil temperature (as determined from the first experiment) is prescribed. Finally, a climatological seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) is prescribed in the third experiment. Together, the three experiments allow the isolation of the contributions of variable SSTs, interactive subsurface soil temperature, and chaotic atmospheric dynamics to meteorological variability. The results show that allowing an interactive subsurface soil temperature does, indeed, significantly increase surface air temperature variability and memory in most regions. In many regions, however, the impact is negligible, particularly during boreal summer.