Tropical Indian Ocean Basin Warming and East Asian Summer Monsoon: A Multiple AGCM Study

Abstract

A basin-scale warming is the leading mode of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability on interannual time scales, and it is also the prominent feature of the interdecadal SST trend in recent decades. The influence of the warming on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is investigated through ensemble experiments of several atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The results from five AGCMs consistently suggest that near the surface, the Indian Ocean warming forces an anticyclonic anomaly over the subtropical western Pacific, intensifying the southwesterly winds to East China; and in the upper troposphere, it forces a Gill-type response with the intensified South Asian high, both favoring the enhancement of the EASM. These processes are argued to contribute to the stronger EASM during the summer following the peak of El Niño than monsoons in other years. These model results also suggest that tropical Indian Ocean warming may not have a causal relationship to the synchronous weakening of EASM on interdecadal time scales.