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    On Estimates of Historical North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2008:;volume( 021 ):;issue: 014::page 3580
    Author:
    Vecchi, Gabriel A.
    ,
    Knutson, Thomas R.
    DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2178.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: In this study, an estimate of the expected number of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) that were missed by the observing system in the presatellite era (between 1878 and 1965) is developed. The significance of trends in both number and duration since 1878 is assessed and these results are related to estimated changes in sea surface temperature (SST) over the ?main development region? (?MDR?). The sensitivity of the estimate of missed TCs to underlying assumptions is examined. According to the base case adjustment used in this study, the annual number of TCs has exhibited multidecadal variability that has strongly covaried with multidecadal variations in MDR SST, as has been noted previously. However, the linear trend in TC counts (1878?2006) is notably smaller than the linear trend in MDR SST, when both time series are normalized to have the same variance in their 5-yr running mean series. Using the base case adjustment for missed TCs leads to an 1878?2006 trend in the number of TCs that is weakly positive, though not statistically significant, with p ? 0.2. The estimated trend for 1900?2006 is highly significant (+?4.2 storms century?1) according to the results of this study. The 1900?2006 trend is strongly influenced by a minimum in 1910?30, perhaps artificially enhancing significance, whereas the 1878?2006 trend depends critically on high values in the late 1800s, where uncertainties are larger than during the 1900s. The trend in average TC duration (1878?2006) is negative and highly significant. Thus, the evidence for a significant increase in Atlantic storm activity over the most recent 125 yr is mixed, even though MDR SST has warmed significantly. The decreasing duration result is unexpected and merits additional exploration; duration statistics are more uncertain than those of storm counts. As TC formation, development, and track depend on a number of environmental factors, of which regional SST is only one, much work remains to be done to clarify the relationship between anthropogenic climate warming, the large-scale tropical environment, and Atlantic TC activity.
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      On Estimates of Historical North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

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    contributor authorVecchi, Gabriel A.
    contributor authorKnutson, Thomas R.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:23:35Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:23:35Z
    date copyright2008/07/01
    date issued2008
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-67044.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4208448
    description abstractIn this study, an estimate of the expected number of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) that were missed by the observing system in the presatellite era (between 1878 and 1965) is developed. The significance of trends in both number and duration since 1878 is assessed and these results are related to estimated changes in sea surface temperature (SST) over the ?main development region? (?MDR?). The sensitivity of the estimate of missed TCs to underlying assumptions is examined. According to the base case adjustment used in this study, the annual number of TCs has exhibited multidecadal variability that has strongly covaried with multidecadal variations in MDR SST, as has been noted previously. However, the linear trend in TC counts (1878?2006) is notably smaller than the linear trend in MDR SST, when both time series are normalized to have the same variance in their 5-yr running mean series. Using the base case adjustment for missed TCs leads to an 1878?2006 trend in the number of TCs that is weakly positive, though not statistically significant, with p ? 0.2. The estimated trend for 1900?2006 is highly significant (+?4.2 storms century?1) according to the results of this study. The 1900?2006 trend is strongly influenced by a minimum in 1910?30, perhaps artificially enhancing significance, whereas the 1878?2006 trend depends critically on high values in the late 1800s, where uncertainties are larger than during the 1900s. The trend in average TC duration (1878?2006) is negative and highly significant. Thus, the evidence for a significant increase in Atlantic storm activity over the most recent 125 yr is mixed, even though MDR SST has warmed significantly. The decreasing duration result is unexpected and merits additional exploration; duration statistics are more uncertain than those of storm counts. As TC formation, development, and track depend on a number of environmental factors, of which regional SST is only one, much work remains to be done to clarify the relationship between anthropogenic climate warming, the large-scale tropical environment, and Atlantic TC activity.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleOn Estimates of Historical North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume21
    journal issue14
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/2008JCLI2178.1
    journal fristpage3580
    journal lastpage3600
    treeJournal of Climate:;2008:;volume( 021 ):;issue: 014
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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