The Impact of Variational Assimilation of SSM/I and QuikSCAT Satellite Observations on the Numerical Simulation of Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones

Abstract

In this study, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) with three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) is utilized to investigate the influence of Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) observations on the prediction of an Indian Ocean tropical cyclone. The 3DVAR sensitivity runs were conducted separately with QuikSCAT wind vectors, SSM/I wind speeds, and total precipitable water (TPW) to investigate their individual impact on cyclone intensity and track. The Orissa supercyclone over the Bay of Bengal during October 1999 was used for simulation and assimilation experiments. Assimilation of the QuikSCAT wind vector improves the initial position of the cyclone?s center with a position error of 33 km, which was 163 km in the background analysis. Incorporation of QuikSCAT winds was found to increase the air?sea heat fluxes over the cyclonic region, which resulted in the improved simulated intensity when compared with the simulation made without QuikSCAT winds in the initial conditions. The cyclone track improved significantly with assimilation of QuikSCAT wind vectors. The track improvement resulted from relocation of the initial cyclonic vortex after assimilation of QuikSCAT wind vectors. Like QuikSCAT, assimilation of SSM/I wind speeds strengthened the cyclonic circulation in the initial conditions. This increase in the low-level wind speeds enhanced the air?sea exchange processes and improved the simulated intensity of the cyclone. The lack of information about the wind direction from SSM/I prevented it from making much of an impact on track prediction. As compared to the first guess, assimilation of the SSM/I TPW shows a moistening of the lower troposphere over most of the Bay of Bengal except over the central region of the cyclone, where the assimilation of SSM/I TPW reduces the lower-tropospheric moisture. This decrease of moisture in the TPW assimilation experiment resulted in a weak cyclone intensity.