Low-Level Jets, Orographic Effects, and Extreme Events in Nares Strait: A Model-Based Mesoscale Climatology

Abstract

A mesoscale atmospheric model, nested in operational global numerical weather prediction fields, is used to estimate low-level winds and surface wind stress through Nares Strait, between Ellesmere Island and Greenland, during 2 yr from August 2003 to July 2005. During most of the year, the model low-level winds are dominated by intense, southward along-strait flow, with monthly-mean southward 10-m winds reaching 10 m s?1 in winter. Summertime flow is weak and distributions of hourly along-strait winds during the 2-yr period are strongly bimodal. The strong southward low-level winds are associated with ageostrophic, orographically channeled flow down the pressure gradient from the Lincoln Sea to Baffin Bay and are highly correlated with the pressure difference along Nares Strait. The 2-yr means and leading EOFs of monthly-mean 10-m winds and wind stress place the strongest winds and stress in the southern parts of Smith Sound and of Kennedy Channel, at the openings to Baffin Bay and Kane Basin, at known sites of polynya formation, including the North Water polynya in Smith Sound, suggesting that the locally intensified winds may cause these persistent polynyas. An intense wind event observed in Nares Strait by a field camp, with surface winds exceeding 30 m s?1, generally follows the typical pattern of these low-level flows. Based on the model correlation of winds and pressure difference, a 51-yr time series of estimated winds in Nares Strait is reconstructed from historical surface pressure measurements at Thule, Greenland, and Alert, Canada. The pressure difference and reconstructed wind time series are correlated with the Arctic Oscillation at annual and longer periods, but not on monthly periods.