Evaluation of Precipitation from Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Satellites Using Values Retrieved from Radars

Abstract

Precipitation is evaluated from two weather prediction models and satellites, taking radar-retrieved values as a reference. The domain is over the central and eastern United States, with hourly accumulated precipitation over 21 days for the models and radar, and 13 days for satellite. Conventional statistical measures and scale decomposition methods are used. The models generally underestimate strong precipitation and show nearly constant modest skill over a 24-h forecast period. The scale decomposition results show that the effective model resolution for precipitation is many times the grid size. The model predictability extends beyond a few hours for only the largest scales.