The ECPC Coupled Prediction Model

Abstract

This paper presents a new Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) Coupled Prediction Model (ECPM). The ECPM includes the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) version of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) ocean model coupled to the ECPC version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Atmospheric Global Spectral Model (GSM). The adjoint and forward versions of the MIT model forced with the NCEP atmospheric analyses are routinely used at JPL for ocean state assimilation. An earlier version of the GSM was used for the NCEP?Department of Energy reanalysis-2 project and for operational seasonal forecasts at NCEP. The ECPM climatology and internal variability derived from a 56-yr-long coupled integration are compared with the observations and reanalysis data. Though the ECPM exhibits climatological biases, these biases are relatively small and comparable to the systematic errors produced by other well-known coupled models, including the recent NCEP Climate Forecast System. The internal variability of the model resembles the observations. ECPM simulates both seasonal and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific reasonably well. The model has good skill in reproducing the mechanism of ENSO evolution as well as ENSO teleconnection patterns (including the Indian monsoon?ENSO relationship). The skill of the ECPM in predicting 1994?2006 SST anomalies over the Niño-3.4 region is shown to be comparable to other coupled models. These retrospective forecasts were used for deriving a model climatology for real-time seasonal forecasts that are currently produced and displayed at ECPC.