Timing of El Niño–Related Warming and Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Abstract

The relationship between all-India summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and the timing of (El Niño?Southern Oscillation) ENSO-related warming/cooling is investigated, using observational data during the period from 1881 to 1998. The analysis of the evolutions of Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies suggests that when ISMR is not below normal despite the co-occurrence of an El Niño event, warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific starts from boreal winter and evolves early so that the western-central Pacific and Indian Ocean are warmer than normal during the summer monsoon season. In contrast, when the more usual El Niño?dry ISMR relationship holds, the eastern equatorial Pacific starts warming rapidly only about a season before the reference summer so that the western-central Pacific and Indian Oceans remain cold during the monsoon season.