Changes in the European Precipitation Climatologies as Derived by an Ensemble of Regional Models

Abstract

This paper analyzes the changes in the precipitation climatologies of Europe for the periods 1960?90 and 2070?2100 using a heterogeneous set of regional climate models (RCMs). The authors used the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) database to define a precipitation climatology for current climate conditions (1960?90), then compare the estimates with the RCMs? simulations for the same period using spectral analysis. After the authors evaluated the performance of the models compared with validation data for current climate, they calculated the future climate spectra (2070?2100). Changes in the future climate have been evaluated in terms of differences in the phase and amplitude of the annual cycle with respect to present conditions. The results show that models provide consistent results and that under the A2 scenario (increased greenhouse gases conditions) precipitation climatologies in Europe are expected to suffer noticeable changes, the most important being a strengthening of the annual cycle in most of the Atlantic coastal areas of the continent. While total amounts of rainfall might undergo little change, the consequences of changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation will strongly affect both ecosystems and human activities. Differences were also found in the probability distribution function (pdf) of precipitation, indicating an overall increase in the frequency of precipitation-related hazards in Europe.