Realizations of Daily Weather in Forecast Seasonal Climate

Abstract

Stochastic daily weather time series models (??weather generators??) are parameterized consistent with both local climate and probabilistic seasonal forecasts. Both single-station weather generators, and spatial networks of coherently operating weather generators, are considered. Only a subset of parameters for individual station models (proportion of wet days, precipitation mean parameters on wet days, and daily temperature means and standard deviations) are found to depend appreciably on the seasonal temperature and precipitation outcomes, so that extension of the single-station models to coherent multisite weather generators is straightforward. The result allows stochastic simulation of multiple daily weather series, conditional on seasonal forecasts. Example applications of spatially integrated extreme daily precipitation and snowpack water content are used to illustrate the method.