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    A 36-yr Climatological Description of the Evaporative Sources of Warm-Season Precipitation in the Mississippi River Basin

    Source: Journal of Hydrometeorology:;2001:;Volume( 002 ):;issue: 006::page 537
    Author:
    Brubaker, Kaye L.
    ,
    Dirmeyer, Paul A.
    ,
    Sudradjat, Arief
    ,
    Levy, Benjamin S.
    ,
    Bernal, Fredric
    DOI: 10.1175/1525-7541(2001)002<0537:AYCDOT>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The terrestrial and oceanic sources of moisture that supply warm-season rainfall to the Mississippi River basin and its subbasins are examined over a 36-yr period (1963?98). Using hourly observed precipitation, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses at 6-h intervals, and a back-trajectory algorithm, the water falling during observed precipitation events is probabilistically traced to its most recent surface evaporative source, terrestrial or oceanic. Maps of these sources generally show dual maxima, one terrestrial and one oceanic, in spring and a dominance of terrestrial sources in summer. Pentad time series averaged over the 36 years show a late-summer maximum of precipitation recycling in all but the Missouri subbasin. During the 36 years analyzed, 32% of warm-season precipitation in the entire Mississippi basin originated as evaporation within the basin (recycled). About 20% of warm-season precipitation was contributed directly by evaporation from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. The Midwest flood year, 1993, represents a positive outlier in terms of July precipitation supplied to the Upper Mississippi directly by evaporation from the Caribbean. The monthly recycling ratios for warm-season precipitation during the drought year, 1988, represent extreme values in the time series but are not identified as outliers. A positive trend in precipitation recycling in the Upper Mississippi and Missouri subbasins and accompanying decrease in Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean?supplied precipitation to those regions are statistically significant but may reflect changes in the observational data stream assimilated by the NCEP model. Perturbation analysis demonstrates that the source fractions and recycling ratios are somewhat sensitive to systematic errors but not to random errors in the model-derived evapotranspiration (ET), arguably the largest source of uncertainty in the back-trajectory approach. Systematic errors in terrestrial ET on the order of 20% introduce errors of about 0.02 in land source fractions (including recycling ratios) that are themselves on the order of 0.10?0.30.
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      A 36-yr Climatological Description of the Evaporative Sources of Warm-Season Precipitation in the Mississippi River Basin

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4206186
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    • Journal of Hydrometeorology

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    contributor authorBrubaker, Kaye L.
    contributor authorDirmeyer, Paul A.
    contributor authorSudradjat, Arief
    contributor authorLevy, Benjamin S.
    contributor authorBernal, Fredric
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:17:10Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:17:10Z
    date copyright2001/12/01
    date issued2001
    identifier issn1525-755X
    identifier otherams-65008.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4206186
    description abstractThe terrestrial and oceanic sources of moisture that supply warm-season rainfall to the Mississippi River basin and its subbasins are examined over a 36-yr period (1963?98). Using hourly observed precipitation, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses at 6-h intervals, and a back-trajectory algorithm, the water falling during observed precipitation events is probabilistically traced to its most recent surface evaporative source, terrestrial or oceanic. Maps of these sources generally show dual maxima, one terrestrial and one oceanic, in spring and a dominance of terrestrial sources in summer. Pentad time series averaged over the 36 years show a late-summer maximum of precipitation recycling in all but the Missouri subbasin. During the 36 years analyzed, 32% of warm-season precipitation in the entire Mississippi basin originated as evaporation within the basin (recycled). About 20% of warm-season precipitation was contributed directly by evaporation from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. The Midwest flood year, 1993, represents a positive outlier in terms of July precipitation supplied to the Upper Mississippi directly by evaporation from the Caribbean. The monthly recycling ratios for warm-season precipitation during the drought year, 1988, represent extreme values in the time series but are not identified as outliers. A positive trend in precipitation recycling in the Upper Mississippi and Missouri subbasins and accompanying decrease in Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean?supplied precipitation to those regions are statistically significant but may reflect changes in the observational data stream assimilated by the NCEP model. Perturbation analysis demonstrates that the source fractions and recycling ratios are somewhat sensitive to systematic errors but not to random errors in the model-derived evapotranspiration (ET), arguably the largest source of uncertainty in the back-trajectory approach. Systematic errors in terrestrial ET on the order of 20% introduce errors of about 0.02 in land source fractions (including recycling ratios) that are themselves on the order of 0.10?0.30.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleA 36-yr Climatological Description of the Evaporative Sources of Warm-Season Precipitation in the Mississippi River Basin
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume2
    journal issue6
    journal titleJournal of Hydrometeorology
    identifier doi10.1175/1525-7541(2001)002<0537:AYCDOT>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage537
    journal lastpage557
    treeJournal of Hydrometeorology:;2001:;Volume( 002 ):;issue: 006
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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