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    Do Models Underestimate the Solar Contribution to Recent Climate Change?

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2003:;volume( 016 ):;issue: 024::page 4079
    Author:
    Stott, Peter A.
    ,
    Jones, Gareth S.
    ,
    Mitchell, John F. B.
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<4079:DMUTSC>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Current attribution analyses that seek to determine the relative contributions of different forcing agents to observed near-surface temperature changes underestimate the importance of weak signals, such as that due to changes in solar irradiance. Here a new attribution method is applied that does not have a systematic bias against weak signals. It is found that current climate models underestimate the observed climate response to solar forcing over the twentieth century as a whole, indicating that the climate system has a greater sensitivity to solar forcing than do models. The results from this research show that increases in solar irradiance are likely to have had a greater influence on global-mean temperatures in the first half of the twentieth century than the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic forcings. Nevertheless the results confirm previous analyses showing that greenhouse gas increases explain most of the global warming observed in the second half of the twentieth century.
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      Do Models Underestimate the Solar Contribution to Recent Climate Change?

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4205456
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    contributor authorStott, Peter A.
    contributor authorJones, Gareth S.
    contributor authorMitchell, John F. B.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:15:40Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:15:40Z
    date copyright2003/12/01
    date issued2003
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-6435.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4205456
    description abstractCurrent attribution analyses that seek to determine the relative contributions of different forcing agents to observed near-surface temperature changes underestimate the importance of weak signals, such as that due to changes in solar irradiance. Here a new attribution method is applied that does not have a systematic bias against weak signals. It is found that current climate models underestimate the observed climate response to solar forcing over the twentieth century as a whole, indicating that the climate system has a greater sensitivity to solar forcing than do models. The results from this research show that increases in solar irradiance are likely to have had a greater influence on global-mean temperatures in the first half of the twentieth century than the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic forcings. Nevertheless the results confirm previous analyses showing that greenhouse gas increases explain most of the global warming observed in the second half of the twentieth century.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleDo Models Underestimate the Solar Contribution to Recent Climate Change?
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume16
    journal issue24
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<4079:DMUTSC>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage4079
    journal lastpage4093
    treeJournal of Climate:;2003:;volume( 016 ):;issue: 024
    contenttypeFulltext
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