Phase-Correcting Data Assimilation and Application to Storm-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction. Part II: Application to a Severe Storm Outbreak

Abstract

A scheme to correct phase errors in numerical model forecasts using Doppler radar, radiosonde, profiler, and surface data is demonstrated to improve forecasts in a complex severe thunderstorm situation. The technique is designed to directly address forecast phase errors or initial position errors as part of a data assimilation strategy. In the demonstration the phase error correction is applied near the time of initial cell development and the forecast results are compared to the uncorrected forecast and forecasts made using an analysis created at the time of the observations. Forecasts are verified qualitatively for the position of thunderstorm cells and quantitatively for accumulated precipitation. It is shown that the scheme can successfully correct errors in thunderstorm locations and it has a positive influence on the subsequent forecast. The advantage of the phase correction over the control lasts for about 3 h despite storm dissipation and regeneration, and interactions among multiple storms.