Dynamic Modeling of the Spatial Distribution of Precipitation in Remote Mountainous Areas

Abstract

Precipitation in remote mountainous areas dominates the water balance of many water-short areas of the globe, such as western North America. The inaccessibility of such environments prevents adequate measurement of the spatial distribution of precipitation and, hence, direct estimation of the water balance from observations of precipitation and runoff. Resolution constraints in atmospheric models can likewise result in large biases in prediction of the water balance for grid cells that include highly diverse topography. Modeling of the advection of moisture over topographic barriers at a spatial scale sufficient to resolve the dominant topographic features offers one method of better predicting the spatial distribution of precipitation in mountainous areas. A model is described herein that simulates Lagrangian transport of moist static energy and total water through a 3D finite-element grid, where precipitation is the only scavenging agent of both variables. The model is aimed primarily at the reproduction of the properties of high-elevation precipitation for long periods of time, but it operates at a time scale (during storm periods) of 10 min to 1 h and, therefore, is also able to reproduce the distribution of storm precipitation with an accuracy that may make it appropriate for the forecasting of extreme events. The model was tested by application to the Olympic Mountains, Washington, for a period of eight years (1967?74). Areal average precipitation, estimated through use of seasonal and annual runoff, was reproduced with errors in the 10%?15% range. Similar accuracy was achieved using point estimates of monthly precipitation from snow courses and low-elevation precipitation gauges.