A Multidecadal Variation in Summer Season Diurnal Rainfall in the Central United States

Abstract

Recent studies have identified two sources alternating their dominant roles in the interannual summer rainfall variations in the central United States. One is the ENSO cycle in the tropical Pacific, and the other is the interannual variability in the intensity of the southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico. The ENSO cycle affected the rainfall variation through an atmospheric teleconnection, which was particularly strong in 1871?1916 and 1948?78. When the teleconnection weakened in 1917?47 and 1979?2002, the southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico invigorated its effect on the interannual rainfall variation. Because the effect of the two sources could result in different rainfall processes in the central United States, their alternation should have built similar variation into the region?s summer season diurnal rainfall pattern. An hourly rainfall dataset was used to examine this hypothesis. Results showed a multidecadal variation in the diurnal rainfall pattern. In the decades when the southerly flow dominated the rainfall variation, the diurnal pattern had large rainfall in late night/morning hours with a sharp rainfall peak in the midnight hour. In the decades when the southerly flow effect weakened, a different diurnal pattern emerged, with small late night/morning hour rainfall and a broad plateau of rainfall in the late night/early morning hours. This diurnal pattern change was happening simultaneously with variations of the southerly moisture flux and moisture convergence in the central United States. These coherent variations show that the summer season diurnal rainfall pattern varied at a multidecadal scale consistent with the alternation frequency of the two sources. In addition to showing the variation in the diurnal rainfall pattern, results of this study provide the knowledge for understanding the climate of extreme events, particularly heavy rainfall and floods, in the central United States.