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    One-Month Forecasts of Wet and Dry Spells of the Monsoon

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;1992:;volume( 120 ):;issue: 007::page 1191
    Author:
    Krishnamurti, T. N.
    ,
    Subramaniam, M.
    ,
    Daughenbaugh, Glenn
    ,
    Oosterhof, D.
    ,
    Xue, Jishan
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<1191:OMFOWA>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: This study follows a recent paper on the predictability of low-frequency modes on the time scale of 30?50 days. By filtering out the high-frequency modes, we are able to delay the contamination of low-frequency modes for periods of the order of 1 month in global forecasts. A multilevel global model forecast is carried out to predict a wet spell over central China. It is shown that an initial state consisting of time-mean state, a low-frequency mode, and a specification of the sea surface temperature anomaly provides useful forecasts for the occurrence of dry or wet spells. All of these tests are carried out with a global model; however, only the monsoon region is examined in some detail. This study includes the results of a number of experiments where the sensitivity to the definitions of the mean state, the sea surface temperatures, and initial datasets are explored. The main finding of this paper is that the prediction of monsoonal low-frequency modes and the related dry and wet spells can be extended beyond the usual numerical weather prediction (NWP) predictability limit of 6 or 7 days. It appears that if the contamination from high-frequency modes is suppressed by an initial filtering, then the prediction of low-frequency motion through one cycle, a period of roughly a month, is possible. The forecasts are shown to be quite sensitive to the definition of the initial time-mean state and the sea surface temperature anomaly.
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      One-Month Forecasts of Wet and Dry Spells of the Monsoon

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    contributor authorKrishnamurti, T. N.
    contributor authorSubramaniam, M.
    contributor authorDaughenbaugh, Glenn
    contributor authorOosterhof, D.
    contributor authorXue, Jishan
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:08:47Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:08:47Z
    date copyright1992/07/01
    date issued1992
    identifier issn0027-0644
    identifier otherams-61967.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4202806
    description abstractThis study follows a recent paper on the predictability of low-frequency modes on the time scale of 30?50 days. By filtering out the high-frequency modes, we are able to delay the contamination of low-frequency modes for periods of the order of 1 month in global forecasts. A multilevel global model forecast is carried out to predict a wet spell over central China. It is shown that an initial state consisting of time-mean state, a low-frequency mode, and a specification of the sea surface temperature anomaly provides useful forecasts for the occurrence of dry or wet spells. All of these tests are carried out with a global model; however, only the monsoon region is examined in some detail. This study includes the results of a number of experiments where the sensitivity to the definitions of the mean state, the sea surface temperatures, and initial datasets are explored. The main finding of this paper is that the prediction of monsoonal low-frequency modes and the related dry and wet spells can be extended beyond the usual numerical weather prediction (NWP) predictability limit of 6 or 7 days. It appears that if the contamination from high-frequency modes is suppressed by an initial filtering, then the prediction of low-frequency motion through one cycle, a period of roughly a month, is possible. The forecasts are shown to be quite sensitive to the definition of the initial time-mean state and the sea surface temperature anomaly.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleOne-Month Forecasts of Wet and Dry Spells of the Monsoon
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume120
    journal issue7
    journal titleMonthly Weather Review
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<1191:OMFOWA>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage1191
    journal lastpage1223
    treeMonthly Weather Review:;1992:;volume( 120 ):;issue: 007
    contenttypeFulltext
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