Cyclone Track Prediction over the North Indian Ocean

Abstract

With the application of chaos theory, the attractor dimension for the system of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean is estimated. The dimension of the attractor is found to be between 5 and 6. On the basis of the low dimension of the attractor, a simple multivariate regression prediction formula is suggested in which only the previous six 6-h positions of the cyclone are used as predictors. Regression coefficients reveal that the cyclones over the North Indian Ocean behave in such a way that the meridional acceleration changes sign during a 24-h period, but the zonal acceleration retains its sign during this period.