Preconvective Mesoscale Analysis over Irregular Terrain with a Satellite-Model Coupled System

Abstract

Influences on the mesoscale distribution of summertime convective cloud development in the northeastern Colorado region are described using a new system for time-continuous mesoscale analysis. The analysis system is distinctive in that there is an intimate coupling between integration of a numerical model and retrieval of temperature and water vapor concentrations from VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) data. We present a case study to compare results of the coupled analysis method with those of related methods, focusing on the roles of variations in ground surface temperatures and water vapor concentrations. The horizontal and time variations represented in satellite-based (coupled) surface temperature analyses closely corresponded to information from conventional shelter temperature observations, but had much greater detail. In contrast, temperature based on energy balance computations tended to increase too quickly during the morning and were lacking in mesoscale feature. In the water vapor analyses, when the first set of satellite data is less reliable than the later sets, some of the contamination lingers throughout the time-continuous coupled analysis results. However, the coupled method generally appears to be the most valuable method considered in this study because it exploits the major strengths of the numerical model and the satellite data while making it relatively easy to recognize and compensate for any impacts of their weaknesses. In addition, the coupled analysis results illustrated that there can be very large mesoscale gradients in temperatures at the ground surface even on relatively flat terrain. These gradients, in combination with terrain height variations, can play an important role in preconvective water vapor kinematics through their influences on vertical and horizontal winds. The analysis system proved to be valuable for forecasting through the close correspondence between derived stability indices and later convective development in the case we studied.