Temperature Sensitivity of the Antarctic Surface Mass Balance in a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model

Abstract

The sensitivity of the surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet to a change in temperature and a change in the sea ice extent is studied with a regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO) using a horizontal grid spacing of 55 km. The model is driven at its lateral boundaries by the reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Sea ice extent and sea surface temperature are prescribed from observations. A control integration is performed for the 5-yr period 1980?84. In a 5-yr sensitivity run, the model is forced by a 2-K increase in temperature at the sea surface and at the lateral boundaries of the model domain, and a reduction in the sea ice extent. The relative humidity at the lateral boundaries is kept constant. The calculated surface mass balance of the grounded Antarctic ice is found to increase by 30% due to the 2-K warming and the retreat of the sea ice. This value is two to three times as large as previous estimates, which were based on simplified atmospheric models and on statistical relations between the surface temperature and the surface mass balance. Additional sensitivity runs show that applying the forcing throughout the atmosphere in the lateral boundary zone has a more significant effect than applying the forcing at the sea surface, especially for the interior of the ice sheet. If only an increase in the sea surface temperature or a retreat of the sea ice is prescribed, the increase in temperature and specific humidity is restricted to the lowest 2 km of the atmosphere above the ocean. Sensitivity runs with forcings in the range of ?5 to +10 K indicate that the commonly used assumption stating that the surface mass balance responds in proportion to the change in continental saturation specific humidity at the inversion height is an oversimplification.