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    Variability in Skill in 120 h FNOC 500 mb Height Forecasts

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;1988:;volume( 116 ):;issue: 006::page 1381
    Author:
    Curtis, J.
    ,
    Boyle, J. S.
    ,
    Wash, C. H.
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1988)116<1381:VISIHF>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The variability of the 120 h 500 mb height forecasts of the Navy's Operational global model was examined for two winters. The forecasts displayed evidence of marked variability in the quality of forecasts as measured by anomaly correlations computed for the Northern Hemisphere. There were clearly defined periods of good and poor model performance on the time scales of 2?12 days. The role of the flow persistence, the scale of the transient features, the amount and amplitude of eddy activity, and unique synoptic patterns (in contributing to the model performance changes) were all considered. None of the above computations could provide an unambiguous indicator of model skill in all cases. The most promising indicator was the transition of the large scale waves during the integration period. This result is in agreement with Bettge and Baumhefner.
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      Variability in Skill in 120 h FNOC 500 mb Height Forecasts

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4202031
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    contributor authorCurtis, J.
    contributor authorBoyle, J. S.
    contributor authorWash, C. H.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:06:55Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:06:55Z
    date copyright1988/06/01
    date issued1988
    identifier issn0027-0644
    identifier otherams-61269.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4202031
    description abstractThe variability of the 120 h 500 mb height forecasts of the Navy's Operational global model was examined for two winters. The forecasts displayed evidence of marked variability in the quality of forecasts as measured by anomaly correlations computed for the Northern Hemisphere. There were clearly defined periods of good and poor model performance on the time scales of 2?12 days. The role of the flow persistence, the scale of the transient features, the amount and amplitude of eddy activity, and unique synoptic patterns (in contributing to the model performance changes) were all considered. None of the above computations could provide an unambiguous indicator of model skill in all cases. The most promising indicator was the transition of the large scale waves during the integration period. This result is in agreement with Bettge and Baumhefner.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleVariability in Skill in 120 h FNOC 500 mb Height Forecasts
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume116
    journal issue6
    journal titleMonthly Weather Review
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0493(1988)116<1381:VISIHF>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage1381
    journal lastpage1388
    treeMonthly Weather Review:;1988:;volume( 116 ):;issue: 006
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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