Forecasting Dry Microburst Activity over the High Plains

Abstract

The active dry microburst days during the 1982 JAWS (Joint Airport Weather Studies) Project in Colorado are examined for common characteristics. The environments on these days are shown to have similar thermodynamic structures in the vertical. In the morning, a shallow radiation inversion is capped by a deep, dry-adiabatic boundary layer. Moisture is present at midlevels. By evening the radiation inversion has been replaced by a superadiabatic layer at the surface. Solar heating of the boundary layer is shown to be important for producing an environment favorable for dry microbursts. A model is proposed that can be used by forecasters to issue a ?wind shear watch? to the general public and aviation community. Peak downdraft speeds associated with dry microbursts appear to be a result of negative buoyancy, owing to the evaporation of precipitation during the descent below cloud base. These downward velocities are of the same magnitude as the horizontal wind speeds. Entrainment of subcloud air into the downdraft is considered minimal.