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    A Case Study of Forecast Sensitivity to Data and Data Analysis Techniques

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;1984:;volume( 112 ):;issue: 008::page 1544
    Author:
    Baker, W. E.
    ,
    Atlas, R.
    ,
    Halem, M.
    ,
    Susskind, J.
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1544:ACSOFS>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: In this study we examine the sensitivity of forecast to individual components of the First GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Programme) Global Experiment database as well as to some modifications in the data analysis techniques. Several short assimilation experiments (0000 GMT 18 January 1979 through 0000 21 January) are performed in order to test the effects of each database or analysis change. Forecasts are then generated from the initial conditions provided by these experiments. The 0000 21 January case is chosen for a detailed investigation because or the poor forecast skill obtained earlier over North America for that particular case. Specifically, we conduct experiments to test the sensitivity of forecast skill to: 1) the addition of individual satellite observing system components; 2) temperature data obtained with different satellite retrieval methods; and 3) the method of vertical interpolation between the mandatory pressure analysis levels and the model sigma levels. For the single case examined, TIROS-N infrared land retrievals produced operationally are found to degrade the forecast, while the use of TIROS-N retrievals produced with a physical inversion method as part of an analysis/forecast cycle results in an improved forecast. The use of oceanic VTPR (Vertical Temperature Profile Radiometer) satellite retrievals also results in an improved forecast over North America. The forecast is also found to be sensitive to the method of vertical interpolation between the mandatory pressure analysis levels and the model sigma levels.
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      A Case Study of Forecast Sensitivity to Data and Data Analysis Techniques

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4201165
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    • Monthly Weather Review

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    contributor authorBaker, W. E.
    contributor authorAtlas, R.
    contributor authorHalem, M.
    contributor authorSusskind, J.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:04:57Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:04:57Z
    date copyright1984/08/01
    date issued1984
    identifier issn0027-0644
    identifier otherams-60490.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4201165
    description abstractIn this study we examine the sensitivity of forecast to individual components of the First GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Programme) Global Experiment database as well as to some modifications in the data analysis techniques. Several short assimilation experiments (0000 GMT 18 January 1979 through 0000 21 January) are performed in order to test the effects of each database or analysis change. Forecasts are then generated from the initial conditions provided by these experiments. The 0000 21 January case is chosen for a detailed investigation because or the poor forecast skill obtained earlier over North America for that particular case. Specifically, we conduct experiments to test the sensitivity of forecast skill to: 1) the addition of individual satellite observing system components; 2) temperature data obtained with different satellite retrieval methods; and 3) the method of vertical interpolation between the mandatory pressure analysis levels and the model sigma levels. For the single case examined, TIROS-N infrared land retrievals produced operationally are found to degrade the forecast, while the use of TIROS-N retrievals produced with a physical inversion method as part of an analysis/forecast cycle results in an improved forecast. The use of oceanic VTPR (Vertical Temperature Profile Radiometer) satellite retrievals also results in an improved forecast over North America. The forecast is also found to be sensitive to the method of vertical interpolation between the mandatory pressure analysis levels and the model sigma levels.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleA Case Study of Forecast Sensitivity to Data and Data Analysis Techniques
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume112
    journal issue8
    journal titleMonthly Weather Review
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1544:ACSOFS>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage1544
    journal lastpage1561
    treeMonthly Weather Review:;1984:;volume( 112 ):;issue: 008
    contenttypeFulltext
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