Evaluating the Skill of Categorical ForecastsSource: Monthly Weather Review:;1982:;volume( 110 ):;issue: 007::page 657Author:Gordon, Neil D.
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0657:ETSOCF>2.0.CO;2Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A generalized skill score is presented for evaluating forecasts in any number of categories. Each forecast in a sample is given a mark; the skill score for the sample is just the average mark. Each mark has an expected value of zero for an unskillful forecast and unity for a correct forecast. In the particular case of two categories the score corresponds to that of Hanssen and Kuipers (1965). For three or more categories an arbitrary penalty factor for incorrect forecasts, which may be as simple as the rank difference between forecast and observed categories, must be specified.
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| contributor author | Gordon, Neil D. | |
| date accessioned | 2017-06-09T16:03:52Z | |
| date available | 2017-06-09T16:03:52Z | |
| date copyright | 1982/07/01 | |
| date issued | 1982 | |
| identifier issn | 0027-0644 | |
| identifier other | ams-60062.pdf | |
| identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4200691 | |
| description abstract | A generalized skill score is presented for evaluating forecasts in any number of categories. Each forecast in a sample is given a mark; the skill score for the sample is just the average mark. Each mark has an expected value of zero for an unskillful forecast and unity for a correct forecast. In the particular case of two categories the score corresponds to that of Hanssen and Kuipers (1965). For three or more categories an arbitrary penalty factor for incorrect forecasts, which may be as simple as the rank difference between forecast and observed categories, must be specified. | |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
| title | Evaluating the Skill of Categorical Forecasts | |
| type | Journal Paper | |
| journal volume | 110 | |
| journal issue | 7 | |
| journal title | Monthly Weather Review | |
| identifier doi | 10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0657:ETSOCF>2.0.CO;2 | |
| journal fristpage | 657 | |
| journal lastpage | 661 | |
| tree | Monthly Weather Review:;1982:;volume( 110 ):;issue: 007 | |
| contenttype | Fulltext |