Models for the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion over the North Atlantic: An Operational Evaluation

Abstract

This study provides an operational evaluation of the seven prediction models-five statistical and two dynamical-used at the National Hurricane Center. Following a brief description of the rationale for each model, various performance characteristics, including forecast error, skill. bias. dispersion, timeliness and availability are evaluated. The conclusion of the study is that none of the models can be singled out as clearly superior or inferior, each having at least one temporal, spatial, economic or utilitarian advantage. In practice, it is difficult to combine these advantages into one all-purpose model. Accordingly. for some time to come, operational guidance will be obtained from a number of different models, both statistical and dynamical. Tropical cyclone forecasters will need to be kept aware of model attributes so that potential conflicts in the guidance can be rationally resolved.