On Some Aspects of Initialization and Forecasts in the Indian Monsoon Region

Abstract

Application of a dynamic initialization scheme for balancing initial wind and pressure fields for a one-level primitive equation model in the Indian region has been investigated. For this purpose, the model equations are integrated forward and backward around the initial time following the Euler backward time-difference scheme without restoration of any variable. For comparison, the initial wind-pressure balance has also been constructed from the observed horizontal motion field by a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity, using the geostrophic relation, the linear balance equation and the nonlinear balance equation. Furthermore, the 48 h forecasts are prepared using the balanced initial data derived from the static nonlinear balance equation and the dynamic initialization scheme. The forecast results from both initialization schemes are compared and discussed. The results obtained from the dynamic initialization scheme are found to be either slightly superior or comparable to those based on the static initialization scheme.