A Study of the Atmospheric Energetics of a Six-Layer Operational Forecast Model

Abstract

Routine estimates of certain atmospheric energetics parameters [AZ, KZ, AE, KE, C(AZ,AE), C(KE,KZ)] have been computed for the National Meteorological Center's routine 0000 and 1200 GMT analyses and for the 00, 12, 24, 36, 60 and 84 h forecasts which were prepared by the six?layer operational forecast model from 0000 GMT. The verification of these forecast values during October and November 1975 and January and February 1976 revealed well?defined temporal behaviors. As the forecast cycle proceeds, there are significant losses of AZ and KZ, while AE and KE show a relative increase at 1?2 days. Cross sections for January 1976 show that a 12% increase of KZ, which occurs during the first 12 h forecast interval, is associated with a downward and northward movement of the mean [u] jet stream core.