An Experimental Prediction of the Tropical Atmosphere for the Case of March 1965

Abstract

A two-week prediction was made, applying a general circulation model on Kurihara's global grid to an observed data set. The maps for the basic meteorological elements at 10 vertical levels for 5 days in March 1965 were analyzed manually with the aid of nephanalysis charts. This report discusses the forecast results selectively for the tropical areas only. The predicted wind, temperature, and precipitation were compared, whenever possible, with the observed data including satellite cloud pictures. The main objective was to attempt a tropical forecast for a case study, and to obtain a crude idea, based on one sample, about the feasibility of predicting tropical weather systems. Some capability in the prediction of the tropical atmosphere is evident for about 3 days, in particular for the upper troposphere, but the prediction needs considerable improvement for the lower troposphere as well as for the stratosphere.