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    Performance Analysis of the HURRAN Tropical Cyclone Forecast System

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;1972:;volume( 100 ):;issue: 004::page 245
    Author:
    NEUMANN, CHARLES J.
    ,
    HOPE, JOHN R.
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1972)100<0245:PAOTHT>2.3.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The HURRAN (hurricane analog) technique, a fully computerized objective forecast aid making use of past tracks in forecasting hurricane motion, was developed prior to the 1969 hurricane season. Encouraging operational results during the 1969 and 1970 hurricane seasons suggested further evaluation of the technique. To this end, HURRAN computations were made for approximately 1,000 forecast situations. Results are stratified according to initial direction and speed of movement of the sample storms and the number of analogs selected. The utility of the technique is discussed, and the importance of position accuracy at forecast time is demonstrated. Initial indications of the value of the technique are substantiated.
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      Performance Analysis of the HURRAN Tropical Cyclone Forecast System

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4198872
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    • Monthly Weather Review

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    contributor authorNEUMANN, CHARLES J.
    contributor authorHOPE, JOHN R.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T15:59:55Z
    date available2017-06-09T15:59:55Z
    date copyright1972/04/01
    date issued1972
    identifier issn0027-0644
    identifier otherams-58426.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4198872
    description abstractThe HURRAN (hurricane analog) technique, a fully computerized objective forecast aid making use of past tracks in forecasting hurricane motion, was developed prior to the 1969 hurricane season. Encouraging operational results during the 1969 and 1970 hurricane seasons suggested further evaluation of the technique. To this end, HURRAN computations were made for approximately 1,000 forecast situations. Results are stratified according to initial direction and speed of movement of the sample storms and the number of analogs selected. The utility of the technique is discussed, and the importance of position accuracy at forecast time is demonstrated. Initial indications of the value of the technique are substantiated.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titlePerformance Analysis of the HURRAN Tropical Cyclone Forecast System
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume100
    journal issue4
    journal titleMonthly Weather Review
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0493(1972)100<0245:PAOTHT>2.3.CO;2
    journal fristpage245
    journal lastpage255
    treeMonthly Weather Review:;1972:;volume( 100 ):;issue: 004
    contenttypeFulltext
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