Changes of Extreme Wave Heights in Northern Hemisphere Oceans and Related Atmospheric Circulation Regimes

Abstract

This study assesses trends in seasonal extremes (90- and 99-percentiles) of Significant Wave Height (SWH) in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific, as simulated in a 40-yr global wave hindcast using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction?National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis wind fields. For the last four decades, statistically significant changes in the seasonal extremes of SWH in the North Atlantic (NA) are detected only for the winter (January?March) season. These changes are found to be intimately connected with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). To be specific, significant increases of SWH in the northeast NA, matched by significant decreases in the subtropical NA, are found to be associated with an intensified Azores high and a deepened Icelandic low. This is consistent with the findings of previous studies based on different datasets. Changes in seasonal extremes of SWH in the North Pacific (NP) are found to be statistically significant for the winter and spring (April?June) seasons. Significant increases in the extremes of SWH in the central NP are found to be connected with a deeper and eastward extended Aleutian low. For both oceans, no significant trends of SWH are detected for the last century, though significant changes are found in the last four decades. However, multidecadal fluctuations are very noticeable, especially in the North Pacific.