APPLICATION OF THE HEAT BALANCE APPROACH TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECASTING

Abstract

The daily net energy available for heating the air from 0300 GMT to the following afternoon, as determined by Myers, is used to compute objectively the maximum temperature expected under static, clear-sky conditions at 12 cities in the power distribution area of the Tennessee Valley Authority. The maximum temperatures thus obtained are plotted and analyzed to resolve irregular features of the isotherm patterns. The analysis is then adjusted subjectively primarily for the effect of temperature advection but also for cloudiness, precipitational cooling, and vertical motion?to take account of changes expected by mid-afternoon of the current day and also of the following day. Verification results for seven cities in the TVA area during 1954 and 1955 are presented. The current-day forecast errors are approximately 50 percent less than persistence forecast errors.