Sensitivity of Atlantic Tropical Storm Frequency to ENSO and Interdecadal Variability of SSTs in an Ensemble of AGCM Integrations

Abstract

A significant reduction (increase) of tropical storm activity over the Atlantic basin is observed during El Niño (La Niña) events. Furthermore, the number of Atlantic tropical storms displays an interdecadal variability with more storms in the 1950s and 1960s than in the 1970s and 1980s. Ensembles of simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are used to explore the mechanisms responsible for this observed variability. The interannual variability is investigated using a 10-member ensemble of AGCM simulations forced by climatological SSTs of the 1980s everywhere except over the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. Significantly fewer tropical storms are simulated with El Niño SSTs imposed over the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans than with La Niña conditions. Increased simulated vertical wind shear over the Atlantic is the most likely explanation for the reduction of simulated tropical storms during El Niño years. SST forcing from different El Niño events has distinct impacts on Atlantic tropical storms in the simulation: simulated tropical storms are significantly less numerous with 1982 SSTs imposed over the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans than with 1986 SSTs. The interdecadal variability of tropical storm activity seems to coincide with an interdecadal variability of the North Atlantic SSTs with colder SSTs in the 1970s than in the 1950s. Ensembles of AGCM simulations produce significantly more tropical storms when forced by observed SSTs of the 1950s than when forced by SSTs of the 1970s. This supports the theory that the interdecadal variability of SSTs has a significant impact on the expected number of Atlantic tropical storms and suggests that Atlantic tropical storms may be more numerous in coming years if North Atlantic SSTs are getting warmer. A significant increase of vertical wind shear and a significant decrease in the convective available potential energy over the tropical Atlantic in the 1970s may explain the simulated interdecadal variability of Atlantic tropical storms.